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October 3rd, 2008

NFL 2008 Monday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

When the Minnesota Vikings announced that Gus Frerotte was their starting quarterback the first thought that came through my head was, “I didn’t even know he was still in the league.”  The last vision I have of Gus the Bus is when he was ramming his head into a wall as part of my beloved Washington Redskins.  Regardless, he’s 1-1 as the starter for the Vikings, who as a preseason favorite to make the playoffs, have started the season 1-3, and in desperate need of a victory.  Frerotte has played pretty well, he hasn’t done anything spectacular, but he hasn’t made any major mistakes that have prevented his team from winning either.  The Vikings also still have one of the best running backs in the league, Adrian Peterson.  Peterson is averaging over 100 yards a game, including 5.1 yards per carry.  However, he has had some hamstring problems this week, but as of right now he is expected to play, which is good news for the Vikings.  The Vikings could easily be at least 3-1, they lost their first two games by a combined nine points.

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September 4th, 2008

NFL 2008 Opening Week Picks: Chicago at Indianapolis

 

The season for the Indianapolis Colts rests on the shoulders of Peyton Manning.  Actually, make that the knee.  While it’s been said for the last few weeks that Manning will be ready for the season opener against the Chicago Bears, Colts fans are nervous because without Manning at the helm, the offense has looked stagnant to say the best.  The knee injury of Manning is probably a serious one, it helps that he is a scrambling quarterback, generally staying in one place to deliver the ball.  However, that doesn’t mean a solid hit to the knee won’t happen.  The offensive line of the Colts will have the added responsibility of protecting the knee of Manning, because if he goes down, it appears the entire season will.

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January 23rd, 2008

Super Bowl XLII: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

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The New England Patriots and the New York Giants put on one of the most memorable games that actually pretty much amounted to nothing. The Patriots were going for the perfect 16-0 regular season, but the Giants had already solidified their spot in the playoffs. At the time, the Giants got a lot of bad press for taking this game so seriously, and many wondered what Coach Tom Coughlin, and company, was thinking. After four quarters of fantastic back and forth action the Patriots had their perfect season, but the Giants had built a type of motivation that can only prepare you for the playoffs. The Giants have won ten home games in a row, and technically, since New England finished with the better record, they will be the home team in Arizona on Super Bowl Sunday.

Eli Manning has grown up during the playoffs. After many years of hearing taunts that he’ll never be as good as his brother Peyton, the Manning name will start a Super Bowl for the second year in a row. Manning hasn’t just “done enough” to get his team to the Super Bowl, he has been an unequivocal leader. Manning has completed 62.4 percent of his passes in the postseason, six percent better than in the regular season. He is also averaging over seven yards a completion, a full yard better than his post season stats. The most important number has got to be his touchdown to interception ration. In the regular season he threw for 23 touchdowns and 20 picks. In the playoffs he has thrown for four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Despite the NFC championship game being his worst game, rating wise, it was his toughness in the below zero temperature that really lets fans know he’s come on in to his known. One of the old stigma’s about Manning is that he was a softy. You can’t say that anymore.

The running back duo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has also been quite effective. Jacobs hasn’t had a stand out game yet in the playoffs, but he has recorded a touchdown in all three of the Giants postseason games. The 6’4” 260 pounder is a bruising back that wears out the offensive line, just in time for them to send out the speedy Bradshaw. The rookie Bradshaw is gaining a ton of experience in the playoffs. He is averaging a 4.2 yards a carry, and has scored once in the playoffs.

It’s amazing that Manning and wide receiver Plaxico Burress have the on field connection that they do. Burress has been listed on the injury list every week this year with a hurt ankle. Manning and Burress do not practice together. Their “practice” consists of running warm-up routes before the game. Burress still finished the regular season with 12 touchdowns, and has caught 16 balls for nearly 200 yards in the postseason. Imagine if they had practiced together.

One wide receiver that hasn’t done as well as expected in the playoffs is New England’s Randy Moss. Moss, to his defense, has had some very tough cornerbacks to play against in the postseason, but that didn’t seem to stop him during the regular season. In the playoffs Moss has a combined two catches for 32 yards in the Pats two games. That’s a far cry from his NFL best 23 touchdowns during the regular season.

Perhaps the biggest story surrounding the Super Bowl is if Tom Brady’s foot is indeed injured. Vegas lines seemed to think so when the pictures first surfaced, but even later in the same day he was seen without the walking cast on his foot that is causing on the racket. My guess of Tom Brady not playing this game is about the same as the sun not coming up tomorrow, virtually none.

The other major storyline surfacing is the nearly two touchdown favorites the Patriots have been listed as. After all, how in the world can they be that big of underdogs after they just lost to them by three points? My answer to this question is this: That game was a home game for the Giants. Secondly, while ultimately it seems this game helped propel the Giants to the Super Bowl, but in reality the game didn’t mean that much. The Patriots have Brady, the best big game quarterback in the NFL. I personally like the spread in this game, with maybe the Patriots winning by closer to 20.

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January 15th, 2008

AFC Championship: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots

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All through the year the Indianapolis Colts quietly put together a good season and were believed to be a sold match in the playoffs for the Patriots once they met. The San Diego Chargers had other plans. A lot of times in sports people assume things are just going to automatically happen. After the close loss to the Patriots in week eight everyone felt they would meet again in the playoffs, even after losing to the Chargers in week nine. The majority of people also felt that the Chargers would be a mere stepping stone to a second match against the undefeated and Super Bowl favorite Patriots. The Chargers got it done, but not without facing some serious injuries that could put them at an even greater disadvantage against the Pats then when they lost to them 38-14 in week two.

Quarterback Phillip Rivers, running back LaDainian Tomlinson, and tight end Antonio Gates are all currently on the injury list heading into the AFC championship. Rivers is listed as questionable with an injured leg. Backup Billy Volek performed admirably after taking only ten snaps the entire regular season. Tomilinson did not play in the second half because of a sprain left knee and his current status is unknown. Chargers fans do know it’s bad though, because if LT can play he usually does, and seeing him dejected on the sideline the entire second half has to be a let down. Finally, Gates entered the game with a dislocated toe, an injury he suffered in the first round victory over the Titans. Gates caught two balls for 28 yards, but was visibly hobbling throughout the contest. The New England Patriots were all ready slated to be huge favorites, but even if just one of these players can’t play, especially Tomlinson or Rivers, then you might see the biggest spread in playoff history. To say the odds are stacked against the Chargers would be an understatement. There eight game winning streak, including the playoffs, is certainly in jeopardy.

Of course, for the Patriots it’s business as usual. Tom Brady is mentioned on the injury list as questionable, but he always seems to be, and week after week he’s fine. He’ll be playing. Rodney Harrison is also on the injury list, but this is also just going through the routine, as Harrison secured an important interception against Jacksonville in the first round of the playoffs. The 31-20 win of the Jags doesn’t tell the story of how close the game actually was. This is probably a good thing for the Pats though so they don’t grow complacent. However in my opinion, and the eyes of others, if the Chargers are as banged up as they appear to be, then this game won’t be much of a contest. Brady went 26 for 28 for a 92.9 percentage completion, the highest in playoff history. He also threw three touchdowns in the win. Randy Moss was almost completely shutdown by the Jaguars defense, catching one ball for 14 yards, but Wes Welker and Daunte Stallworth filled in just fine. They have so many weapons on the team you just have to pick your poison and hope for the best.

I guess it’s no surprise when I pick the Patriots here. I’ve picked them all season, and thankfully they have led me to a 17-0 record. At least when picking Patriots games. I think the injuries, and the Patriots offensive proficiency will be much too much for the Chargers to handle, especially in Foxboro. I predict a final score of something like 35 to 14.

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January 8th, 2008

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Jacksonville vs. New England

 

The Jacksonville Jaguars advanced to the divisional playoffs with a 31-29 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh. As a reward, after such a hard fought battle, they get to take on the undefeated, and rested, New England Patriots. While the New England Patriots have looked beatable the majority of the last part of the year, they have continued to find ways to win, and are still the overwhelming odds on favorite of sweeping the post season and holding up the Lombardi trophy the first Sunday in February.

Jaguars quarterback David Garrard managed to get through the entire regular season throwing just three interceptions, but he nearly matched his total with two in the victory of the Steelers. He finished that game just 9 for 20 with 140 yards passing and a touchdown. It was the play of running backs Fred Taylor, and Maurice Jones-Drew who ultimately led them over the hurdle, combining for three touchdowns. It is Taylor who has been shunned by Pro Bowl voters every year he’s been in the league, but it was the play of the young Jones-Drew, with two touchdowns, that was the deciding factor overall. A successful duo of two high quality running backs is always a good thing, never a bad thing, when trying to run deep into the playoffs. If there has been one knock on the Patriots is that they have struggled against the run a bit. At least, struggled as much as a team who has won every game they’ve played. Jacksonville is also expected to be every bit as physical at the Patriots, a fact they tack pride of.

The New England Patriots got a week of rest to enjoy their body of work, which included multiple records set by the duo of Tom Brady and Randy Moss. To give an example of the dominance the Patriots had this year they scored 589 points this year. The next closest team in their division scored 268. On defense they gave up 274 points. The next closest in their division gave up 354. However, as mentioned, the last few weeks of the season weren’t a cakewalk for the Patriots. Even in the final game of the year the Pats needed a second half comeback to defeat the New York Giants 38-35 in a game of the year candidate that ultimately have very little effect on the regular season, other then the fact the Giants were trying to end the undefeated streak. If Giants fans have their way, they’ll be seeing each other again in February.

As odds on favorite it’s no surprise when I pick the Patriots to win this game. I am not sure Garrard has enough big game experience to lead his troops against the defense of the Patriots. I think defensively they can keep it close, but as the game wears on I think the Patriots will take a steady lead, eventually winning by nearly three touchdowns.

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January 7th, 2008

NFC Divisional Playoffs: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

 

As Giants defensive end Michael Strahan put it after their first round playoff victory over Tampa Bay, “I hope the third time is a charm,” in reference to their two previous regular season losses during the regular season to the Dallas Cowboys. Their first match-up of the year came during the very first week of the season, a high scoring affair with the Cowboys coming up on top 45-35 in Dallas. In New York during week nine the Cowboys took that one 31-20. However, the Giants may be facing their nemesis at just the right time.

Never before in the history of NFL has a loss seemed so important to a team’s morale. During the final game of the year the New York Giants and New England Patriots played all of their starters in a seemingly meaningless game, as both teams have already etched in stone their playoff destinies. The one thing that was on the line was an undefeated season for the Patriots, which they ultimately got, but not after one of the best games of year. The 38-35 loss left the Giants feeling great, knowing they just hung with the best team in the league for four quarters, and left New York hoping to see them again. Amazingly the Giants only lost one game on the road this year, that was the Dallas game. It’s been said that one of the hardest things to do in the NFL is to beat the same team three times in the same season. The Giants are hoping that rings true for them this coming week.

The Cowboys went through the majority of the season riding high. Quarterback Tony Romo spent the majority of the season finding Terell Owens wide open down field. Win after win piled up, until around the 15th week of the year. They unexpectedly lost to the Eagles in Philadelphia, but only expected that to be a hiccup. Ironically, or because, according to some people, this was also the game that Jessica Simpson and Romo officially became a couple, and Simpson was seen in the press box cheering for her man throughout the game. Many fans, and even some teammates, view Simpson as a distraction, and will most likely boo if they see her at this game, no joking aside. After beating Carolina in week 16, they lost to the Redskins in week 17, allowing Washington to sneak into the playoffs. While that didn’t ultimately affect the Cowboys playoff standings, it was Romo’s 7 for 16, 86 yard performance that has Cowboys fans wondering if the Cowboys will once again sputter out early in the playoffs.

Of all the games this weekend, I see this one as having the biggest chance of an away team winning. The Giants are playing well, and the Cowboys could be in for some trouble. I feel this game is a pick-um, with the ultimate deciding factor being the play of Tony Romo. As of this second I am leaning towards a Giants upset victory.

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January 4th, 2008

NFL Playoffs: New York Giants vs. Tampa Buccaneers

The New York Giants tried their best to keep New England from finishing undefeated, but ultimately fell short in a well spirited effort 38-35, after leading the majority of the game. Because the Giants took the last game of the season so seriously, besides not needing the victory for anything other than pride, is why I believe they are going into the game more mentally prepared then Tampa. Tampa has known it’s spot in the playoffs for the last two weeks, and in those two weeks rested the majority of their players. I know they are professional athletes and used to these situations, but I don’t think I can be argued too much when I say that can’t help the morale of your team. It is a plus that they are going to be rested, and playing at home, but even on paper the Giants might be a better team, despite everything previously mentioned. In many eyes the Bucs benefited from a soft schedule, playing in a division where the majority of the teams were out of the playoffs by just over the halfway point of the year. To be fair, they did win the games they played to earn the home field playoff game, but they are just about an underdog going into it.

Eli Manning is more known for being the “other Manning,” but him’s pretty good himself. This season Eli has thrown for 23 touchdowns, but his 20 interceptions are a concern among fans. At times Manning has appeared to lose focus, and as a result made poor plays that have hurt his team, including throwing an interception against the Patriots that could have given them the lead on one of the last drives of the game. Running back Brandon Jacobs is also enjoying a career revival, averaging five yards a carry, while scoring four times. When Plaxico Burress is healthy he is one of the best players in the league, and even when he has nagging injuries, like he has this year, he’s still very good. He’s caught 70 balls this year, with 12 touchdowns, among tops in the league among people not named Randy Moss. Burress has been on the injury list listed as “probable” for nearly the entire year, often only practicing with Manning minutes before the game.

As mentioned the Bucs have lost two in a row, and have also lost three of four. They are led by the ageless wonder Jeff Garcia, who parlayed a great season last year with the Eagles, to another playoff appearance, this year as the full time starting quarterback with the Bucs. Garcia very rarely makes mistakes, throwing for only four interceptions this with 13 touchdowns. Running back Earnest Graham has done a fine job filling in for injured Cadillac Williams, running for four yards a carry, and scoring 10 times.

I think the Giants are playing better football now, and are on a high after almost knocking off the team some are calling the best others. I think they will go down to Tampa and take care of business by a score of 27-21, in a very exciting game.

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January 3rd, 2008

NFL Playoffs Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Despite Jacksonville having a better record, and maybe even playing the better football, they will have the task of going to Pittsburgh to try to knock off the Steelers in the opening round of the playoffs. Both teams are also coming into this game with a loss, but it should also be noted that winning this game didn’t do anything for either team in terms of playoff positioning, so each team sat most of their star players against their respective opponents. For what it’s worth, neither of their opponents made the playoffs.

What may be of some concern for the Steelers, not even taking the final game into account, is the way they closed the year. Altogether they dropped three of four, including a 29-22 loss to Jacksonville in week 15. The Steelers had a hard time beating other playoff teams this year, but it hasn’t been because of the play of their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. “Big Ben” has a quarterback rating of 104.1, better than his rating during his Super Bowl victory year. He’s thrown for 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A loss that they will no doubt feel in the playoffs is the loss of Willie Parker. At the time of his injury he was at the top of the league is rushing yards. Najeh Davenport has filled in, averaging an impressive five yards a carry, but he doesn’t have the same breakaway speed Parker has.

Jacksonville won it’s final three games in a row, not including the finale. They are led at the quarterback position by nearly mistake free David Garrard. While Garrard isn’t overpowering at his position, he only threw an amazing three interceptions on 325 passes this year, including 18 touchdowns. The Jaguars also have a running back who should be an All-Pro this year, Fred Taylor. Taylor has never made a Pro Bowl, despite rushing for over 10,000 career yards, including 1202 this season. They also have a nice second option in Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored nine times.

This is a tough choice because of Pittsburgh historically playing so well at home, including a 7-1 record this year, with its lone loss coming to the Patriots. As noted though, the Jaguars come in the hotter team. I think Pittsburgh finds away to win this, as I don’t think Jacksonville is quite experienced enough to travel on the road in win in such a hostile environment. My pick is Pittsburgh 28, Jacksonville 17.

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December 27th, 2007

NFL Game of the Week: Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos

 

After a long, hard fought, NFL season we have finally reached the conclusion of the regular season. While the season has been filled with good games, sometimes it’s hard to find one the very last week of the season because so many things have already been determined. At the time of this writing the Minnesota Vikings may or may not be in the playoffs. If they beat the Redskins they are in, if they didn’t, then they need this game against the Broncos very badly. Pretty much every other game in the final week of the season has very little meaning on the outcome of the playoffs. If the Patriots beat the Dolphins this week, which there is no reason they shouldn’t, then New England will be looking to complete a perfect season by beating the New York Giants.

The Minnesota Vikings found gold in the NFL draft when they were lucky enough to draft Adrian Peterson. Some teams passed up on him due to some injuries he received while in college, but everything appears to be fine with him now, despite some unrelated injuries early in the season. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, the highest in the league. If he can bump that average up to six a carry, which he was at for the majority of the year, he will become the first person to do that since Barry Sanders. He has ran for 1278 yards and scored 12 times as well. Often times the Vikings have won ugly during their current five game winning streak (once again, as of this writing) but they continue to win nevertheless. The play of quarterback Tavaris Jackson has continually gotten better, but they are playing him in a very simple offensive plan that allows him to keep mistakes to a minimum. Many NFL experts predict that Jackson won’t allow his team to advance deep into the playoffs because the defenses will be like any he has ever seen before, but just to get to the playoffs will be a nice reward for the young Vikings team.

The Broncos have been eliminated from playoff contention for quite a while. They played well at times, but their lack of consistency, particularly from the quarterback play of Jay Cutler. Cutler is still expected to be a very good quarterback in the near future, but his time to show it is coming soon.

Denver could very well play the role of spoiler here, allowing either the Redskins or New Orleans Saints to sneak into the playoffs. Denver is generally tough at home, despite a 41-3 loss to San Diego in the middle of the season. Like I said, I have no way of determining what the situation will be in the time of this game, but a lot of Redskins and Saints fans could be rooting for Denver like they are their own home team.

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